Lake Affected

Trying to make sense of the Cubs' lost season, I am almost at peace now. The Astros have won 4-2, and San Fran leads the Dodgers 2-0. The best the Cubs can do is tie for the wild card, and that would be with two wins (possible to probable with Zambrano and Maddux pitching) and a lot of help (improbable).

The Cubs were playing from behind all year. The pitching staff wasn't "whole" until August, and even then the Cubs lacked a reliable closer. The Nomar Garciaparra trade didn't seem to provide enough of a spark, maybe because Nomar could only play 5 of 7 games in a week. Yet the Cubs remained in the hunt, and even appeared to be in the driver's seat until LaTroy Hawkins gave up a double on an 0-2 count on Wednesday. Had he sewn up the save, maybe Dusty Baker's thinking about the playoffs right now.

Right now, the Cubs have 88 wins, matching their total last year. Can that count for anything? I don't know. It's a disappointing season, and the players need to go home and figure out how to handle the enormous expectations and pressure (because that will be here again next year). We'll see what changes Jim Hendry makes. Steve Stone alluded to a "blockbuster" at the end of the season, and speculation has been rampant. Will Omar Minaya take Sammy Sosa off the Cubs' hands and give Sosa the chance to finish his career in Queens? Will Moises Alou leave? Will Kerry Wood be dangled as trade bait? Will Chip Caray, Steve Stone or both be let go (there's something to that story as well)?

Some have suggested that maybe Dusty Baker should be fired for such a disappointing season. I couldn't disagree more. For one, Baker has taken the Cubs to as close to World Series as any manager since Charlie Grimm. Secondly, stability at the top helps foster success.

Baker didn't take San Francsisco to the World Series until 2002, his 10th year. Since the end of 1996, he has played something like 11 meaningless games. (The maximum number of games his Cubs will play this year, by the way, is one.)

But critics complain he hasn't won the "big one." Fair enough. I guess we should find someone who has.

How's this for a list: Jack McKeon, Mike Scioscia, Bob Brenly, Joe Torre, Jim Leyland, Bobby Cox, Cito Gaston, Tom Kelly, Lou Piniella, Tony LaRussa, Tommy Lasorda, Davey Johnson, Dick Howser, Sparky Anderson, Joe Altobelli, Whitey Herzog, Dallas Green, Chuck Tanner, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin, Alvin Dark, Dick Williams, Danny Murtaugh, Earl Weaver, Gil Hodges, Mayo Smith, Red Schoendienst, Hank Bauer, Walter Alston, Johnny Keane, Ralph Houk, Casey Stengel. These are the last 31 managers who have managed to win the "Big One," dating back to Stengel's 1958 World Series crown.

I suppose Stengel, Keane, Alston, Smith, Hodges, Murtaugh, Martin, Lemon and Howser are unavailable as they're dead.

So we're down to 23. I doubt you could coax Ralph Houk out of retirement, seeing as he's 85, and last managed the 1984 Red Sox, back when Roger Clemens was a rookie. Ditto for Dark, who's 82 and last managed the 1977 San Diego Padres. We're down to 21.

Schoendienst is 81, and although he did a fine job of interim-managing the 1990 Cardinals (in between Herzog and Torre), it's doubtful he would come out of retirement, leave the only franchise he has ever known, and work for the Cubs. That's 20 candidates now.

Hank Bauer is 82 and Earl Weaver is 74. Neither will be making a comeback. Down to 18.

I suppose a 75-year-old Dick Williams might be interested in managing again (perhaps rejuvenated after seeing his old GM in San Diego, McKeon, win a World Series). But in his last job, he led the Mariners to a 159-192 record when he was canned in mid-1988.  That's 17 left.

Chuck Tanner was a perfect manager for the Pirates when they won the World Series. From 1976 to 1980, he won 87, 96, 88, 98 and 83 games. From 1985 through 1987, he lost 104, 89 and 92 games. He's also 75, and unlikely to come out of retirement to deal with this bunch. Down to 16.

Dallas Green is only 70, and he has a nice connection with Cubs history. But he never had a .500 season in his five seasons in New York (one with the Yankees and four with the Mets). Cross him off the list. 15 left.

Herzog will be 73, and has said he wants to bulldoze Wrigley Field. Screw him. Down to 14.

Joe Altobelli (age 72) is already 0-1 with the Cubs (interim managing between Don Zimmer and Jim Essian). He had his chance. Down to 13.

Sparky Anderson is 70 years old with little to prove. The big complaint about him in his later years was that he was out of touch with the modern-day player. Why would he want to tarnish his legacy with the Cubs? Down to 12.

Davey Johnson did a bang-up job with Cincinnati, Baltimore and Los Angeles since leaving the Mets, right? Down to 11.

Lasorda just turned 77. He's happy hanging out in the Dodgers' organization, and even if he had "Marv Levy disease" and wanted to manage at that age, no way would he do it at Dusty Baker's expense. Down to 10

LaRussa is hated by just about every member of the Cubs organization. He's not a candidate. We have just 9 candidates left.

Lou Piniella? Well, if you could pry him loose from the Devil Rays (a player of Corey Patterson's caliber might do the trick)

Tom Kelly? Andy MacPhail may be able to talk him into it. He's only 54 and rested.... Keep him on the list.

Cito Gaston? He never took the Blue Jays over .500 after his second World Series. We're down to 8.

Bobby Cox? Atlanta is his last stop. Down to 7.

Joe Torre? New York is his last stop. Down to 6.

Jim Leyland? He lost 108 games in 1998 (not his fault) and 90 in 1999 as Don Baylor's replacement (his fault). That brings us down to 5.

Bob Brenly? The Diamondbacks' even-worse play since his firing in July might have vindicated him some, but I think he is still stuck with the tag of lousy manager. Down to 4.

Mike Scioscia? Does winning the big one count if it's against Baker? Down to 3.

Jack McKeon? He's already said he'll be back in Florida next year and that it's his last stop.

That leaves us with two possible replacements:

Lou Piniella and Tom Kelly.

You get them, God bless us all.

If not, we're simply stuck with one of the most successful managers of the past decade. I think we'll survive.

And before you go far, hear some words in Dusty's defense. 

We'll be back next year!